Demystifying Japan

"Yeah, those Japanese love their stimulus bills"

I found four back to back articles relating to Japan which argues for and against (mostly the former) the idea that Japan's economic outlook is a "failure". To make things easier, let me go through each of the articles one by one and summarize the sailent points in which the authors are pointing out.

The Myth of Japan's Failure by Eamonn Fingleton

• Author has the opinion that the Japanese Economy has done very well during the so-called lost decades.
• Average Japanese lives longer than Americans.
• The Japanese has one of the fastest internet services in the world.
• The Yen has risen by 87% against the US Dollar and 94% against the British Pound since 1989.
• Japan's account surplus grew more than threefolds since 1989 to USD$ 129 billion.
• Its citizens seems to be living lavishly with the latest cars and spoiled pets.
• America's higher growth rate compared to Japan is an overstatement as American statisticians have been using a hedonic method of adjusting inflation which distorts the actual growth.
• Electricity output per capita is twice that of America.

Japan, Reconsidered by Paul Krugman 

• Agrees that there is an overstatement of Japan's decline.
• Current account surpluses are not necessarily a sign of success.
• Proposes that GDP Per Working Age is shrunk during the lost decades.
• Concurs that the data doest not match the picture of relentless decline.
• Believes that America is doing worse than Japan ever did.

The Myth of The Myth of Japan's Failure from Tokyo To The World 

• Japan's account surplus is being eroded by the rising yen.
• The Yen's rise is exacerbated by the Dollar & Euro's woes.
• Unemployment figures does not include those who work part time.
• Even if unemployment was lower than america, that might be due to fewer eligible people.
• Japan has the highest Debt to GDP Ratio in the world.

A Reply to Paul Krugman by Eamonn Fingleton

• Argues that GDP Growth is distorted due to Services Sector's contribution to GDP and measurement techniques.
• Differing political agendas; America wants to display strong growth with Japan the other way.
• Argues that the sobriquet "Juggernaut Japan" solidifies the importance of Trade Surpluses.
• Quoted John F. Kennedy's fear of Nuclear War and Trade Deficits.
• How Japanese companies still pioneer high tech industry based on research

Undoubtedly, some very, very good arguments, points and opinions being thrown around. These articles shed a lot of light on my interest as to why Japan has not be performing so well. Some may be disputable, others however, are very interesting. Here are some of the things that I found interesting;

America's overstatement of growth is driven due to statistical measuring techniques.

It has never really occured to me that America could in a way overstate their growth due to differing statistical measuring techniques. I would expect this to come out of my own country but not from America where Transparency is being thrown aloud, which brings me to my second point.

Differing political agendas.

This is undoubtedly try and beneficial to parties who know how to manipulate information being published. America, in all their might, and as the self-proclaimed leader of the world would always want to project an image of a strong economy and stand out against other countries in order to be able to keep the world under its grip. The Japanese however have a different agenda; after being forced to adapt to the Bretton Woods system (which many attributed to their downfall), they would have lesser incentives in showing themselves to be a dynamic and economically influential. Despite still laying low, they are both tempted and sort of being influenced to participate in the latest FTA - the Trans Pacific Partnership.

Unemployment figures does not include those who work part time.

To some extent I would agree to this idea. Normalyl employment figures are based on number of people contributing to national pension funds; which could either be full time or part time workers. Unemployment figures could be manipulated by including figures that would not be taken into account elsewhere; again bringing us to the issue of measurement technique used.

Distortion in GDP's ratio to services and measurement techniques.

I know for a fact that measuring Services Exports itself is a pain; let alone Services Sector's contribution to a country's GDP, measuring techniques used and other variables which can be identified to measure a country's GDP growth. So this would definitely distort the actual figure of a country's overall economic performance.

Throughout the articles, there were a lot of calls on how westerners should actually come and visit Japan itself to see how well they have progressed. But not all of us have the luxury of doing so. So yes, I must say, after reading all the above, my perception towards Japan's performance has undoubtedly changed.

But which side of the fence its on is still a blur.

Grow Up Greece!

"Cage them! Cage them now!"

To be a single nation or not to be? That is the question.

In order to answer this question, another question must be answered beforehand - would Greece be able to pay off their debts? Clearly, the answer is no. Knowing thism Greeks must unite and take the necessary measures in oreder to contain their financial problems - but the problem is even the citizens themselves don't know who to elect. Reason being? All the candidates speak of austerity measures which is extremely unpopular with the public.

Are fucking retarded?

Its high time that you put a sock in it after years of binge spending. You want to tell me you're unwilling to cut down your spending? Isn't that a bit childish? Look at how Koreans were willing to give their personal gold during the Asian Financial Crisis 97/98 just to help their country to get out of the debts in which those IMF & World Bank assholes put them into.

Get your act together retards!

Can Japan Rise From The Ashes?

"Never thought I'd see a pin like this."



This is probably my third article related to how Japan is losing to Korea, with the latest one written right before my lengthy distraction - yes, I was distracted.

It seems like a large number of Japanese companies admit that they are lagging behind their Korean counterpart, in particular, the Television Industry to which Samsung and LG are currently holding the heavyweight title. To say that the Japanese are completely out of the picture however would be too much of an understatement; they are still somewhere on top with their Advanced Robotics Industry, among other high tech things.

I think the bigger question in this case would be how long can South Korea maintain their position as a top producer and exporter of electronic goods? I recall having this interesting chat with the Assistant Trade Commissioner from Korea based here; we were talking about how Koreans work late and I thought that this could be a factor draining creativity and innovation to which he couldn't agree more. He also questioned Korea's how long can they sustain their top position. Personally, what Koreans have achieved so far can be attributed to their sense in reverse-engineering; for instance, have you tried comparing Samsung's Galaxy series to Apple's iPhone? Notice the similarities? I also question their status as a "developed" country; and wealth generation which does not distribute income equally.

Korea's ability to maintain their top position can be question through the multiple suits launched by both Samsung and Apple against each other (to which I think was overly stupid and childish). Why you ask? Well after the couple settled down, Apple now plans on purchasing memory and microprocessors from Japan and Taiwan, in an attempt to "reduce their dependance on Samsung" to which, is nothing more than a bunch of pure, unadulterated bullshit. It's clear that Apple was butthurt with the entire charade; so their relataliating by swapping suppliers. Now the question is; how would losing a major client such as Apple affect Samsung's overall direction? I'm pretty sure their future direction now is somewhat shaky to the least.

Clearly, only time will tell.

The Great Hiatus

"We will return shortly ... maybe after 2 months"



... Yeah. Procrastination and pretending to be busy at work was probably the reason.

Getting back;,here are two interesting stories.

So it seems like there's a growing number of Chinese Companies defaulting on their contracts; why you cunning bastards. Can't blame them since there's their economy has been going downhill since last year. Now that demand on their side is weakening the whole world is in panic mode; affecting countries like Australia. Could this mark the downfall of China's economy - therefore the world? Fuck no. I'm pretty sure its temporary. I had a good chat with a newly made acquaintance who thinks that the China's economy isn't really slowing down; the Chinese government is artificially cooling (with the relevant policies) the economy to make sure they don't grow 12" inches too long or to a point where inflation comes on their faces harder than a brick wall. In his words; Effective first, then Effeciency. So I guess the government is making tweaks to make sure growth is stable in the long run; hell any GDP growth of <5% should be better than any of the already developed countries.

On another note, I recall reading an article on South Korea being pressured to halt their imports of oil from Iran; although America agreed to allow them to continue all non-oil related transactions, EU is starting to throw a fit and rejected any exemption appeals by the Korean government. Not a big fucking deal to me anyway but I was drawed towards this particular line in one of the articles;

European insurers have a monopoly on shipping insurance, so it will be extremely difficult to find replacements

How come they have monopoly over shipping insurance; in particular, for Oil Shipments? I think that is a huge fucking question that needs to be answered; I'm demanding it to be answered. Could it be because of the fact that they have been in the industry so long? Is it because only they have the capital for it? I doubt it. This is definitely something worthwhile doing a bit more research on.

Feels good to be writting again.